When the new US tariffs were first imposed in early 2025, the same concerns were echoed across the news: stagflation, recession, and irreconcilable supply chain disruptions. Tech companies feared soaring electronic costs, delayed 5G rollouts, and disrupted AI advancements.
Many months later, as 2025 draws to a close, the sentiment is mixed. The Tax Foundation emphasizes that “… tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers,” while The Washington Post has argued, “Most businesses have simply taken the tariffs in their stride and moved on.”
These conflicting perspectives highlight a single truth about Trump’s tariffs: while businesses have indeed had no choice but to adapt, US tariffs have altered global trade. The worst-case scenarios have not materialized, but the true impact of the new international trade landscape may not be fully felt until 2026.
Looking Back at Trump’s Tariffs in 2025
You may think that US tariffs only affect the supply, demand, and costs of goods in America, but their effects ripple worldwide. In the tech world, they significantly affect every layer of the supply chain, from component sourcing to cross-country manufacturing and the returns and maintenance processes.
In 2025, Trump’s tariffs took two approaches: sectoral and country-specific. Sectoral rates cover products such as steel, aluminum, copper, automobiles, and lumber. Country-specific rates target individual trading partners, with rates depending on their trade deficit or surplus with the US, typically ranging from 10% to 20%. Rates changed throughout the year as concessions, deals, and retaliations were made.
Higher Costs and Supply-Chain Disruptions for Tech
2025 quickly became a year of turbulence for the tech industry as hardware costs rose, supply-chain friction increased, and many firms faced a difficult choice: absorb the costs, pass them on to customers, or overhaul sourcing and exporting strategies.
US tariffs have hit the telecommunications industry hard: hardware such as fiber-optic cables, 5G base-station components, routers, and antennas are subject to import duties ranging from 7.5% to 25%, which raises capital expenditures and slows network expansion.
For broader tech and electronics, Reuters reported in April 2025 that US tech and retail stocks tumbled after the tariff shock.
The cost pressure has had far-reaching effects, resulting in supply delays, bottlenecks, and increased unpredictability in lead times. Many US companies experienced logistics-cost increases of 10-15%, squeezing their margins or prompting them to raise prices.
Rewiring Supply-Chains | Adaptation and Resilience
Trade turbulence triggered innovation and adaptation in 2025. Many technology companies began restructuring where and how they source components:
- Conventional China-based supply chains were disrupted by US tariffs that reached as high as 145% at one point. Firms began diversifying their manufacturing and sourcing to alternative hubs, especially across Southeast Asia, a strategy now known as the “China + 1” approach.
- Supply-chain strategies shifted from “just in time” to “just in case” as companies began building redundancy, buffering inventories, and preparing fallback suppliers, effectively reshaping their global sourcing logic to build resilience against the increasingly uncertain trade environment.
- Even with increased costs and complexity, many telecom and hardware companies opted to absorb higher costs rather than abandon projects, demonstrating a commitment to long-term infrastructure and tech deployment despite headwinds.
New Allies and New Trade Deals
Throughout 2025, the US signed and outlined trade deals with many trading partners. In order of most to least recent, America has reached trade agreements with: Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, the EU, Japan, Indonesia, the UK, China, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
However, not all of these deals have been finalized and implemented, meaning they haven’t yet had the chance to reshape trade dynamics. As we enter 2026, we may see more of these deals take full effect and begin to change aspects such as sourcing locations and export markets.
As governments were shaken by global trade uncertainty, America wasn’t the only country striking trade deals. The European Union has reached free trade agreements with the UK, Mexico, Indonesia, and the South American trade bloc Mercosur, with India next on the agenda. The UK also signed a trade deal with India, while India finalized the Economic Partnership Agreement with the EFTA.
Hope for Global Growth
Two months after the Liberation Day tariffs took effect, the OECD lowered its global growth prediction for 2025 to 1.6%. In September, that rose to 1.8%. In December, this forecast rose to 2%. While global uncertainty led to a decline in trade in some sectors and regions, it continued to grow in others.
Despite rising tariffs and uncertainty, global trade held up better than expected. New tariff measures are likely to have had a softer immediate impact due to delayed enforcement, broad exemptions, and legal challenges.
Additionally, import frontloading and a boom in AI-related demand drove the first half of 2025, with AI-related trade increasing by more than 20% year-on-year and accounting for nearly half of total trade growth. One of the most advanced chipmakers, TSMC, reported in June that while tariffs affected importers of their products, the demand continued to outweigh the available supply.
Nearly one in five globally traded goods is now affected by new import measures, but 72% of global goods still move under Most-Favored Nation (MFN) rates, underscoring the continued stability of the multilateral system despite the turbulent year in trade. The WTO also reports that as US tariffs have increased, so have other countries’ efforts to ease trade tensions, as they have noticeably preferred “dialogue over retaliation.”
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The Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
On November 5th, 2025, some of the US tariffs went to court. The IEEPA-related rates have been under scrutiny, as various companies and trade courts believe they were implemented illegally. The case with the Supreme Court was expedited, and a ruling is possible in early 2026.
If ruled illegal, large-scale refunds may be in order. Some multinational companies are already suing the administration to secure their refunds. On the other hand, the trade war could continue if the trade remedies are ruled legal, leaving sweeping tariffs on the table as a potential negotiation tactic.
Even if the Supreme Court rules the country-specific IEEPA rates illegal in 2026, the Trump administration has many alternative trade remedies to implement duties. The rates may change to 15%, but high US tariffs are likely here to stay. In August, US Commerce Chief Lutnick believed the new duties would bring in $50 billion a month – a significant revenue that could mean the tariff regime will continue beyond the current administration.
US Tariffs in 2026
The extensive impact of US tariffs won’t disappear as the clock strikes midnight on December 31st. If high US tariffs are here to stay, then structural changes are likely to persist into 2026 as businesses settle into the new norm. While businesses may continue to show resilience despite uncertainty, we could also see global price hikes, profit margin warnings, and more supply chain changes in the new year.
The US-China Tariff War in 2026
America and China finally reached a longer-term tariff truce, extending the peace for at least another year, starting November 10th, 2025. While this reduced the risk of new shocks, uncertainty remains over the future of US-China relations. Businesses must continue leveraging diversified sourcing and regional supply-chain buffers to maintain operational resilience.
Geopolitical and strategic competition between the US and China persists, alongside the cold war for AI dominance. Only time will tell whether the world’s most influential trade partners will opt for complete decoupling or work towards a sustainable and reciprocal coexistence.
The USMCA in 2026
The USMCA will be under review in 2026, presenting both opportunities and uncertainties for North American trade. This offers firms a chance to optimize regional supply chains, enhance nearshoring strategies, and leverage predictable duty frameworks. However, businesses that rely on narrow cross-border sourcing may face cost or compliance challenges if the provisions change.
Trade talks are further complicated by US-Canada trade tension, as the two nations paused talks over an anti-tariff advertisement broadcast by Ontario in America.
Your Global Partner to Reach New Frontiers in 2026
As we enter 2026, resilience remains key for tech importers and exporters, but so too does adaptation and flexibility. Trade uncertainty isn’t going anywhere, so tech businesses need to embrace new strategies to avoid rising costs and supply chain disruptions, like:
- Diversified supply chains,
- Regional sourcing, and
- Strategic scenario planning.
As trade becomes increasingly multipolar and regions grow more isolated, trade compliance is more crucial than ever. When you partner with TecEx, we offer the regulatory expertise to help you integrate new suppliers or reach new markets seamlessly. Wherever you choose to source components from or ship your technology to, we’ll handle the logistics and customs clearance, letting you focus on innovations that deserve a global stage.
