The TecEx Tariff Tracker

The IEEPA tariffs head to the Supreme Court tomorrow. Regardless of the ruling, high tariffs are likely here to stay. While mass refunds may be necessary if they’re ruled illegal, the Trump administration has other tariff authorities available to reimpose similar rates and continue its agenda.

After the much-anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, significant progress has been made as the tariff truce will be extended for a year from November 10, meaning:

• The US will lower the national security-related tariffs on China,
• America will delay new sanctions on Chinese companies for a year,
• China will postpone the new rare earth export controls for a year,
• China will resume US soybean purchases,
• China will suspend reciprocal tariffs for a year,
• China will suspend new port fees on US vessels, and
• The US will suspend its new port fees on Chinese vessels.

While these measures defuse immediate threats to the truce, tech traders should remain cautious, as global trade uncertainty remains.

President Sheinbaum confirms the higher tariffs will not apply from November 1st as the US has given Mexico more time to make trade policy changes.

The latest US-China trade framework reportedly facilitates China’s purchasing of US soybeans, the suspension of America’s threatened additional 100% tariff, and US access to Chinese critical minerals – but risks overlooking core sources of contention between the nations.

The US and Japan sign the “United States-Japan Framework For Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing,” similar to America’s recent agreement with Australia.

Brazilian Presidant Lula expects to sign a trade deal with the US soon after productive trade talks.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to lessen its dependence on the US, Canada is exploring closer ties with countries like China and the Philippines.

A US–China trade framework is ready for discussion ahead of Trump and Xi’s upcoming meeting.

President Trump also signed multiple deals in Southeast Asia, addressing trade imbalances and opening alternate supply chains for rare earths. Reciprocal deals with Malaysia and Cambodia were signed, and frameworks were outlined with Thailand and Vietnam. The US will maintain a 19% tariff on the former three, and a 20% rate on Vietnam, but some goods will receive duty-free access to America.

In response to the Reagan advertisement, Trump announces an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports.

Trump suspends ongoing trade talks with Canada over an Ontario advertisement using an edited voiceover of Ronald Reagan speaking against tariffs.

President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping plan to meet during the APEC summit in South Korea on October 30th, less than two weeks before their tariff truce is set to expire and only two days before China’s rare earth export controls take effect.

Trump reportedly expects a “good deal” could be made with China, but warns that the meeting with President Xi Jinping may not happen. 

Additionally, according to Reuters, the global economic output of rare earths could be cut by $150 billion by China’s new export curbs, as China is responsible for “… 69% of global rare earth mining, 92% of refining, and 98% of magnet manufacturing.” These materials are crucial for high-tech industries and are used in products ranging from lithium batteries to artificial intelligence technologies. Building alternative REE supply chains, from mining to processing and manufacturing, would take many years.

Australian Prime Minister Albanese meets with President Trump to discuss trade and the Aukus trade agreement, as well as to offer an alternative source of rate earth elements to the US. 

Australia and the US sign a rare earths deal aimed at:

• Achieving critical mineral and energy dominance,
• Deepening defense cooperation, and
• Promoting economic prosperity and technology cooperation.

Measures for critical minerals and rare earths include securing supply, investing in mining and processing, streamlining processes like obtaining permits, and ensuring supply chain security. They plan to provide over $1 billion in financing for initiatives in both countries.

Reuters reports that Chinese exporters are focusing on other export markets in “Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa” to offset losses in the American market. Despite the tariff turbulence, Chinese exports have grown by 7.1% in 2025.

Scott Bessent will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier next week to de-escalate the US-China tensions, while Trump plans to meet Xi Jinping in South Korea in around two weeks time.

The IMF revises its global growth outlook upwards despite high US tariffs, but the revision is still downward in comparison to the pre-policy-shift forecasts. The higher global growth can be partially attributed to the lack of retaliatory moves against the new US import tariffs and the new US trade deals.

In a press conference, Scott Bessent mentions the possibility of extending the trade truce if China backs down on its export controls.

He also reveals that the US plans to work with key allies to coordinate their response to the controls, as the threatened regulations mean any global exporters require permits to export products containing certain Chinese elements. But China has said trading partners not aligning with US efforts against it will not be subject to the controls.

Meanwhile, South Korean officials prepare to travel to America on Thursday to continue tariff negotiations.

Tariffs on timber, lumber, and derivatives take effect, and new US and Chinese port fees apply. China retaliates at Trump’s threats with sanctions on American units of a South Korean shipping giant, Hanwha Ocean Co.

Trump threatens to halt trade in cooking oil with China in response to China’s refusal to purchase US soybeans. US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, says the Trump-Xi talks will still happen later this month in South Korea.

A post by President Trump on Truth Social suggests a tit-for-tat tariff escalation is not likely to ensue from the latest US-China trade threats.

In response to China’s “Trade hostility,” President Trump threatens an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, plus new export controls on critical software, and threatens to cancel his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping.

China alerts trade partners of incoming export controls on critical minerals and rare earth elements from November 1st, as well as on vital tech components like lithium batteries and graphite. The exporting of technology to mine and process rare earth elements will also be controlled.

Retaliating against the incoming US port fees on Chinese-operated and Chinese-built vessels, China also schedules port fees to apply to American-owned, built, or flagged ships from the same date, October 14th.

Signed in March last year after 16 years of negotiations, India’s TEPA with EFTA takes effect today. India cuts tariffs on nearly 95.3% of imports from the bloc and gains duty-free access to EFTA markets for 99% of goods. 

Similar to many of America’s new trade deals, the agreement requires an investment commitment –  $100 billion and the creation of 1 million jobs over the following 15 years. 

India continues pursuing trading agreements with the EU and with the US.

Reuters reports that imported electronics may face tariffs based on the number of chips they contain, likely to affect a broad range of consumer electronics, to boost domestic chipmaking. The impact would be significant, as chips and electronics have been largely exempt from tariffs. Chipmaking tools may be exempt to prevent rising manufacturing costs.

In three separate Truth Social posts, President Trump announced the following incoming duties:

• • A 25% tariff on heavy trucks,
  • A 50% tariff on “Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products,”
  • A 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, and
  • A 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceuticals.

Driven by America’s tariffs, the European Union and Indonesia sign a trade deal 9-years in the making, bilaterally removing duties on over 90% of imports.

Vietnam is reportedly the Southeast Asian country hit hardest by tariffs, with a fifth of exports to the US facing the 20% tariff, meaning it may lose over $25 billion over time. 

South Korea’s President warns that America’s requested investments under the new trade deal could cause an economic meltdown, stalling negotiations. 

In response to tariff uncertainty, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an Asian trade bloc that includes ASEAN members plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, is looking to hear members’ suggestions for improvements and possibly allow new countries to join. 

Meanwhile, Turkey has lifted some tariffs from Trump’s previous term in anticipation of a meeting with the US. 

A birthday call to Modi from Trump gives India hope for a trade deal to secure lower rates.

Despite President Trump’s state visit to the UK, plans to discuss duty-free steel imports to the US have been put on hold for now, meaning UK steel still faces up to 25% tariffs. While the rate remains high, UK steel importers are at an advantage compared to the rest of the world, which faces a 50% rate.

The Supreme Court granted the Trump administration’s request for an expedited ruling on the legality of reciprocal tariffs, with the cases set for argument in early November.

As BRICS nations, particularly India and Brazil, face high tariffs, Brazil’s President Lula calls for closer trade ties between the members to mitigate the effects.

A new Executive Order modifies rates for countries that are addressing non-reciprocal trade practices and align with America “… on economic and national security matters.”

Over 40 HTS codes have been identified for lower or zero-tariff rates for these partners, including 8505.11.0070 (electromagnets not used for lifting) and 8541.41.00 (photosensitive semiconductor devices, including solar cells).

The White House announces the implementation of the US-Japan trade agreement.

The Executive Order states, “Under the Agreement, the United States will apply a baseline 15 percent tariff on nearly all Japanese imports entering the United States, alongside separate sector-specific treatment for automobiles and automobile parts; aerospace products; generic pharmaceuticals; and natural resources that are not naturally available or produced in the United States.  This new tariff framework, combined with expanded United States exports and investment-driven production, will help reduce the trade deficit with Japan and restore greater balance to the overall United States trade position.”

Another appeals court rules the reciprocal tariffs, as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as illegal. 

The Trump administration plans to request an expedited ruling from the Supreme Court.

President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend de minimis treatment comes into effect. Low-value shipments valued under $800 now face the same duties as higher value imports. The suspension excludes “Personal letters, bona fide gifts under $100, and personal travel items under $200…”

US Customs and Border Protection explains that tariffs on these items will either match the effective ad valorem IEEPA rate for the country of origin, or face a specific tariff depending on the country of origin and the IEEPA rate under the following circumstances:

• Effective IEEPA rate below 16% = $80 per item,
• Effective IEEPA rate between 16 and 25% = $160 per item, and
• Effective IEEPA rate above 25% = $200 per item.

America doubles the rate on imported goods from India to 50%, the highest tariff on any Asian exporter. Electronics and pharmaceuticals remain exempt from the significant duties.

Canada is lifting tariffs on certain consumer goods and USMCA-compliant imports from America, but steel, aluminum and autos will continue facing 25% rates. 

Despite this peace offering to America, Canada is continuing to strengthen relationships elsewhere, with Prime Minister Carney reportedly planning to meet with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum in September.

The US and EU release a joint statement containing a “framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade”

Key commitments include:

• The EU is to eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods,
• The US will cap tariffs on EU exports at 15%, using either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) rate or a reciprocal tariff,
• Starting 1 September 2025, certain EU good, including aircraft and parts, and generic pharmaceuticals, will only face MFN rates ,
• The U.S. will reduce Section 232 tariffs on EU vehicles and parts to a maximum of 15%, contingent on the EU introducing legislation to cut tariffs on US products; reductions will take effect retroactively once that legislation is introduced, 
• The US and EU will collaborate on addressing steel and aluminium overcapacity, strengthening supply chains, and aligning standards, and 
• The EU will procure $750 billion in US energy products and $40 billion in AI chips, as well as adopt US technology security requirements.

Over 400 additional steel and aluminum derivatives are immediately added to the list of goods facing the 50% tariff on these metals. The newly included products range from HTS code 7614.10.10 (stranded wire, cables, plaited bands and the like, of aluminum, not electrically insulated, with a steel core) to 8479.90.75 (parts of machinery and mechanical appliances for industrial robots). 

Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, explains that “Today’s action expands the reach of the steel and aluminum tariffs and shuts down avenues for circumvention – supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries.”

President Trump announces that tariffs for semiconductors will be set in the next two weeks, possibly at 200% or 300%.

One day before the US-China truce is set to end, President Trump signs an Executive Order to suspend additional reciprocal tariffs on China for another 90 days. This allows the two countries to continue discussing their “lack of trade reciprocity” and America’s “… resulting national and economic security concerns.”

The reciprocal tariffs take effect at 12:01am New York Time.

With one day to go until reciprocal tariffs take effect, Trump signs an Executive Order implementing additional 25% ad valorem tariffs on Indian imports for “… directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.” He also announces that semiconductor and pharmaceutical rates will be announced soon.

He later announces up to 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, specifying that companies like Apple will be exempt for investing in US domestic manufacturing. Tariffs on chips could be product-specific, as tech from phones to cars contain semiconductors. The tariff aims to push tech companies to return manufacturing to the US and localize their procurement. 

Bloomberg reports that the average US tariff rate is predicted to reach 15.2% if the reciprocal tariff rates are implemented as expected on Friday.

The new copper tariffs alone are expected to affect over $15 billion of imports to the US. The duties will be calculated depending on the copper content of an item, meaning that pure copper items will have a higher effective rate than products only containing a portion of copper.

The US Customs and Border Protection releases guidance for the reciprocal tariffs. It also announces exemptions for the higher rates, such as for goods under HTS code 9903.01.25 which were in transit to the US before August 7, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT. AND will clear customs between August 7 and October 5, 2025.

From today, new rates apply to Canada, copper, and the EU. 

The White House releases an Executive Order, “FURTHER MODIFYING THE RECIPROCAL TARIFF RATES,” clarifying the final rates on hundreds of countries and territories. The reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect on August 7th.

Mexico is granted a 90-day reprieve from the higher tariff rates to give it time to negotiate a trade deal with the US, while an Executive Order adds 40% tariffs to transshipments from Canada and other countries. The UK’s tariff is set at 10%. Thailand and Cambodia reach deals with the US, with the new tariff rates sitting at 19%. 

The US is reportedly dividing trade partners into three groups to determine its tariff rates:

• Countries with which the US has a surplus will face 10% rates,
• Countries that have deals with the US but that the US has a trade deficit with will face around 15% rates, and
• Countries with no deals and significant trade deficits will receive higher tariffs.

Switzerland, which has an overall trade balance of -$47,886.0  with the US in 2025, faces 29% reciprocal tariffs. America sets Taiwan’s rate at 20%, Israel’s at 15%, and Venezuela’s at 20%.

On Truth Social, President Trump stresses there will be no extension for the August 1st tariff deadline.

South Korea strikes a trade deal with the US that includes 15% tariffs on imports, despite pushing for 12.5%.

The US implements 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports ahead of the August 1st deadline. The White House’s Fact Sheet shows that key exports like commercial aircraft, Brazil nuts, energy products, and orange juice will not face additional tariffs above the 10% global baseline rate.

The universal 50% copper tariffs are adjusted to apply specifically to “semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products,” likely affecting tech items like cables and electronic components.

Trump also posts that India’s tariff rate will be set at 25%, with unspecified penalties for certain Russian- and Chinese-bought goods.

US and Chinese trade representatives are unable to reach a deal to extend the truce immediately, as the final decision lies with President Trump.

Trump announces that the global baseline tariff will likely increase to 15-20% for countries that have not negotiated individual agreements and don’t warrant individual reciprocal rates.

US and Chinese officials resume talks in Sweden to extend their trade war truce. China has already fast-tracked rare earth shipments to the US, and the US has loosened export controls on certain semiconductor imports to China. An extension would maintain the current trade relationship while facilitating further discussions on ongoing issues.

Meanwhile, Canada remains deep in trade talks with the US to negotiate the high tariffs with no end in sight yet.

The EU and the US reach a preliminary deal that the White House describes as “… fundamentally rebalancing the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies.” Most EU imports to the US will face 15% tariffs.

The deal also eliminates tariffs on a range of specific goods, which President von der Leyen states currently includes “all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials.”

In response to the threatened 30% tariff on EU goods, the EU prepares tariffs on €100 billion of US goods to match the 30% tariffs if they take effect.

The US reaches a trade deal with Japan, lowering tariffs on Japanese goods to 15%. Trump announces an agreement with the Philippines, lowering tariffs to 19%.

The Justice Department is preparing to criminally charge companies and individuals for tariff circumventions in the US, including violations like undervaluing goods or falsifying the country of origin.

A US trade deal with Japan could be within reach, while Indonesia continues negotiating its new trade deal with the US. US tech imports to Indonesia could be exempt from the country’s local content (TKDN) rules.

The US nears a trade deal with India, with a possible EU deal on the way.

As US-EU trade talks continue, France and other EU members encourage the use of the trade bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to implement harsher countermeasures against US tariffs.

Meanwhile, Canada implements tariffs on steel and aluminum from key trading partners, notably excluding the USA.

Indonesia signs a trade deal to reduce tariffs on its imports to the US to 19%. It currently includes no tariffs for US imports to Indonesia and a higher tariff for transshipments.

Trump sends letters to Mexico and the EU warning them of 30% tariffs from August 1 if the two countries fail to reach trade agreements with the US. 

In a statement, EU President von der Leyen says, “Imposing 30 percent tariffs on EU exports would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Mexico’s President Sheinbaum believes, “… we are going to reach an agreement with the United States government and, of course, achieve better terms.” 

Meanwhile, for the first time in a fiscal year, US revenue collected from customs duties surpasses $100 billion on both a net and gross basis.

Trump threatens a higher universal rate of 15-20%, and a rate of 35% for non-USMCA compliant Canadian imports.

Reciprocal rates for additional countries have been released for imports to the US:

• 50% on Brazilian imports,
• 20% on Filipino imports,
• 30% on Iraqi imports,
• 30% on Sri Lankan imports,
• 30% on Algerian imports,
• 30% on Libyan imports,
• 25% on Bruneian imports, and
• 25% on Moldovan imports.

Trump confirms no more extensions will be given for negotiations after August 1. He also announces a 50% tariff on copper imports, likely to take effect by August 1, and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, which will apply after at least a year to allow manufacturers to prepare or move operations to America.

Bloomberg reports that the tariff deadline for trading partners is now August 1, giving them more time to negotiate deals. 

Trump sends tariff letters to trade partners and shares them on Truth Social, revealing the following reciprocal tariff rates:

• 40% on Burmese imports
• 40% on Laotian imports,
• 36% on Cambodian imports,
• 36% on Thai imports,
• 35% on Bangladeshi imports,
• 35% on Serbian imports,
• 32% on Indonesian imports,
• 30% on Bosnian and Herzegovinian imports,
• 30% on South African imports, 
• 25% on Japanese imports,
• 25% on Kazakh imports,
• 25% on Malaysian imports,
• 25% on South Korean imports, and
• 25% on Tunisian imports.

With BRICS’s 17th Summit in Brazil this month, President Trump threatens nations that align with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS” with additional tariff rates of 10%. 

Trump announces on Truth Social that the US has reached an agreement with Vietnam. He shares that Vietnam will face 20% tariffs on all imports and 40% tariffs on transshipments to the US, while the US will face no tariffs on imports to Vietnam.

Bloomberg reports that Trump does not plan to delay the current deadline for negotiating the reciprocal tariffs.

The EU is unwilling to negotiate DST laws under a US trade deal. Meanwhile, Indonesia offers the US an investment opportunity in a critical minerals project , South Korea will seek an extension on the July 9 deadline, and the Thai president plans to visit the US to continue negotiations and extend the deadline.

Canada announces the cancellation of Digital Service Taxes on American tech companies to resume trade talks with the US. Canadian Minister of Finance and National Revenue says, “Rescinding the digital services tax will allow the negotiations of a new economic and security relationship with the United States to make vital progress and reinforce our work to create jobs and build prosperity for all Canadians.”

Carney shares that the negotiation timeline ends on July 21, after the July 9 deadline for US reciprocal tariffs.

Trump tells Fox News it would be “no big deal” to extend the July 9 trade talk deadline, but specifies “I don’t think I’ll need to.” Bessent previously said he thinks the US trade deals could be “wrapped up by Labor Day” if 10 of the main ones are signed by July 9.

As trade investigations into lumber and timber, copper, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors continue, new Section 232 tariffs could hit these major industries alongside the reciprocal tariffs at some point.

European Commission President Von Der Leyen said at the summit of the European Council, “We are ready for a deal. At the same time, we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement is reached. This is why we consulted on a rebalancing list. And we will defend the European interest, as needed. In short, all options remain on the table.”

Trump threatens to end trade talks with Canada in response to its plan to implement retroactive Digital Service Taxes on June 30, which would require approximately $2.7 billion from US companies.

US Secretary of Commerce tells Bloomberg that under the finalized truce, the US will have access to China’s rare earth minerals and will lift its countermeasures in return. He also states that 10 trade deals are incoming ahead of the July 9 deadline.

Meanwhile, Trump announces that a trade deal with India may be signed soon.

Two weeks before the reciprocal tariff deadline, the US is still in trade talks with countries like Canada, Mexico, India, the EU, Japan, Vietnam, Switzerland, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia. Only the UK has secured a trade deal to escape US reciprocal tariffs, while China has achieved a fragile truce. 

Meanwhile, Chinese exporters may be front-loading exports to Southeast Asia and the US before additional tariffs are imposed after the truce. Last week, a record 6.7 million containers were shipped from Chinese ports, and local cargo flights in China also reached a record high.

Reuters reports that Trump doesn’t feel the EU has offered a fair trade deal, and that Japan’s tough stance puts it at risk of receiving a “letter saying ‘this is what you’re going to pay, otherwise you don’t have to do business with us.”

South Korea hopes to negotiate a trade deal in the next few weeks despite political turmoil, while Japan was reportedly unable to strike a deal with the US.

The White House releases a fact sheet for the EPD, stating, “This U.S.-UK trade deal will usher in a golden age of new opportunity for U.S. exporters and level the playing field for American producers.” PM Starmer says, “This is going to boost trade between and across our countries. It’s going to not only protect jobs, but create jobs, opening market access.”

The US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal is finalized. The US offers the UK lower tariffs on certain goods and a cap on duty-free steel and aluminum imports. The universal 10% tariff remains in place for other UK imports to the US. The UK will drop its tariffs on a range of US goods.

Meanwhile, Thailand hopes to negotiate tariffs of 10% with the US.

The Sino-US truce is restored. The US will enforce 20% tariffs on Chinese imports to the US, causing tariff stacking of at least 55% due to pre-existing 25% rates from before the trade war, plus the 10% universal tariff. China will maintain its retaliatory 10% tariff on US imports.

The US tariffs on steel will extend to steel derivatives, reportedly affecting household appliances like “combined refrigerator-freezers; small and large dryers; washing machines; dishwashers; chest and upright freezers; cooking stoves, ranges and ovens; food waste disposals; and welded wire racks.”

US and Chinese trade representatives agreed to a framework in London aimed at implementing the Geneva consensus from May. Key points include fast-tracking Chinese shipments of rare earth metals to the US, while the US is to ease its stringent export controls on goods to China. Trump posts on Truth Social that “… President XI and I are going to work closely together to open up China to American Trade. This would be a great WIN for both countries!!!”

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit rules that the reciprocal and 10% universal tariffs can remain in place for now.

The EU believes trade negotiations with the US will extend beyond the July 9 deadline and is preparing tariff and non-tariff countermeasures in case negotiations unfairly benefit the US. Retaliatory tariffs on €21 billion of goods have been approved, and additional tariffs on €95 billion of goods are being prepared. The frontloading of imports to the US ahead of the reciprocal tariffs has doubled the EU’s trade surplus with the US, which creates a poor outlook for the likelihood of 50% tariffs on 70% of EU exports to the US.

Lutnick explains, “I’m optimistic that we can get there with Europe. But Europe will be probably the very, very end” of the list of US trade deals being made.

Arriving at the trade talks today, Howard Lutnick, US Secretary of Commerce, states that they are “going well.”

Meanwhile, the US and Mexico are nearing a trade deal to allow duty-free steel and aluminum imports from Mexico into the US, as long as the total shipments are below a specified cap.

The US and China begin the next round of trade talks in London to negotiate friction surrounding China’s restricted rare earth mineral exports and US export controls on advanced AI technology.

Trump shares on Truth Social that Sino-US trade talks will resume in London on June 9.

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US sharply increased by 42% in the past year, placing the country at higher risk for significant reciprocal tariffs.

Canada’s Industry Minister Melanie Joly confirms that President Trump and Prime Minister Carney are in negotiations, and Carney emphasizes that Canada is “preparing reprisals if those negotiations do not succeed.”

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agree to engage in further trade talks over a high-stakes phone call.

US tariffs on steel and aluminum increase to 50% to “more effectively counter foreign countries that continue to offload low-priced, excess steel and aluminum in the United States market and thereby undercut the competitiveness of the United States steel and aluminum industries.” UK currently faces 25% tariffs on these goods under the EPD, which is subject to change.

The US accuses China of continuing to restrict access to critical minerals for advanced tech despite the truce. Trump posts on Truth Social that President Xi is “extremely hard to make a deal with.”

With the Trump administration planning to revoke Chinese student visas and tighten export curbs on AI chip design software as well as AI chips, China accuses the US of violating the temporary truce, with the ministry stating, “If the US insists on its own way and continues to damage China’s interests, China will continue to take resolute and forceful measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Tariff uncertainty continues to extend worldwide, and Reuters reports that global companies have lost $34 billion due to fewer sales and higher costs.

The US trade court deems Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to invoke certain tariffs illegal, giving the administration 10 days to rescind them. This includes the 10% blanket tariff, national security-related tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the escalated rates for China. Tariffs on foreign cars, steel, and aluminum are unaffected by the ruling, as they were imposed under Section 232 and Section 301 authorities.

Later, a federal court pauses the ruling against the tariffs. Bloomberg reports that The Justice Department rejects the ruling and states the use of IEEPA was valid.

Goldman Sachs explains that even if the order is not permanently blocked, the administration could still implement additional tariffs under Section 232, 301, 201, and 122 to offset the ruling and continue its tariff agenda. In any case, businesses must continue scenario planning and developing proactive mitigation strategies.

Japan is the latest country offering support to businesses and households affected by the tariffs, with a $6.3 billion budget. It’s set to continue negotiations with the US alongside an upcoming G7 summit in June.

Meanwhile, in an address to the Canadian Parliament, King Charles III said, likely referring to the tariff war, “The world is a more dangerous and uncertain place than at any point since the Second World War. Canada is facing challenges that are unprecedented in our lifetimes,” adding, “Canada is ready to build a coalition of like-minded countries that share its values, that believe in international co-operation and the free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.”

The NY Times reports that President Trump plans to revitalize American shipbuilding. This may involve imposing new port fees on Chinese-built, owned, or operated vessels entering American ports, which could apply as soon as October 2025.

As Trump’s looming EU tariffs threaten goods from pharmaceuticals to machinery, he offers a temporary reprieve while the trading partners negotiate a deal, delaying the 50% tariffs until July 9.

Trump threatens the EU with a 50% tariff on exports to the US on Truth Social, as negotiations are proving challenging. The EU would likely retaliate with its planned tariffs on €21 billion of US goods.

He also threatens Apple with a 25% tariff if it continues producing iPhones outside of the US. He later adds that this would also apply to Samsung or any other smartphones manufactured outside of the US.

Reuters reports that retailers like Pandora and Birkenstock are considering offsetting tariff costs by increasing prices globally instead of only raising US prices. The largest retailer in the US, Walmart, plans to increase prices and reduce orders for certain goods. Tariffs are starting to hit consumers and businesses – Allianz reports that 42% of surveyed exporters expect a decline in revenue, largely due to tariffs.

Meanwhile, Vietnam confirms continued negotiations with the US, Japan continues pushing for the elimination of America’s unilateral tariffs, and Thailand proposes measures to address its trade surplus with the US, including better market access for US goods, policies against origin-washing or duty circumvention through transshipments, and investment in the US.

In response to global tariff chaos, the EU and UK announce monumental agreements at a joint press conference after the EU-UK summit.

Portuguese President António Costa explains, “On trade, we are united in our commitment to economic stability. We both believe in free trade – fair, sustainable and open – as the engine of prosperity for our citizens and for the global economy.”

Prime Minister Starmer confirms that the agreements give the UK “unprecedented access to the EU market – the best of any country outside the EU or EFTA.”

In a joint trade statement, APEC members show solidarity amongst trade uncertainty, saying, “We remain committed to APEC as the premier forum for regional economic cooperation and emphasize the importance of its role in bringing us together to address the economic challenges facing our region and create a more resilient and prosperous Asia-Pacific region.”

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries are under immense pressure from transshipments, the Sino-US trade deal, and the risk of reciprocal tariffs.

Bloomberg reports that Canada’s significant exemptions for its retaliatory tariffs have resulted in a “nearly zero” increase in tariff rates on US goods. Automotive imports, as well as goods necessary for Canadian manufacturing, health care, public safety, and national security, are largely exempt.

Trump claims that India has “offered us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariff.” India’s foreign minister confirms the countries have been talking but adds, “Nothing is decided until everything is,” and that the deal must be mutually beneficial.

The US and China implement the agreed actions for de-escalation. China lowers retaliatory tariffs to 10% and suspends some non-tariff measures like export controls on dual-use goods. The US lowers tariffs to 30% but retains earlier duties related to national security concerns and the fentanyl crisis. A mechanism is being established to facilitate the ongoing discussions.

As part of the temporary Sino-US trade agreement, the US is lowering de minimis tariffs to 54% for low-value Chinese imports. The flat fee will also be reduced from $200 to $100.

This is a relief for many US importers. According to Reuters, 90% of tax-free packages enter the US using de minimis, with 60% coming from China.

Meanwhile, India may retaliate against Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

The US and China have agreed to suspend tariffs for 90 days starting May 14. During this period, US tariffs on Chinese goods will lower from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US goods will lower from 125% to 10%.

Trump shares a vague update on Truth Social about the talks with China, which started on Saturday, May 10.

The White House shares statements from Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer announcing a “China Trade Deal in Geneva.”

In his statement, US Trade Representative Ambassador Greer outlines the purpose of the negotiations, “Just remember why we’re here in the first place — the United States has a massive $1.2 trillion trade deficit, so the President declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs, and we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to work toward resolving that national emergency.”

India and Japan are reportedly next in line for US trade deals. India suggests a tariff reduction on US imports from 13% to 4% and preferential treatment for 90% of US imports in return for preferential market access for a range of exports.

Trump shares a post stating, “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.” This would be a drastic decrease from the current 145% tariffs, which have caused Chinese exports to the US to drop by 21% (and exports to ASEAN countries to increase by the same amount).

President Trump announces an incoming US-UK trade deal on Truth Social. He implies this is the first of many, with another post reading, “The Golden Age of America is coming!”

The White House later releases a statement outlining the general priorities for the trade agreement, which still needs to be negotiated and formalized.

US tariffs on UK goods remain at 10%, while the UK will likely reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%.

While trade investigations into semiconductors continue and the threat of 25% tariffs loom, the Trump administration announces intentions to rescind and replace the Biden-era “AI Diffusion Rule,” which aimed to heavily restrict the global movement of US-made GPUs.

US officials Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, plan to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week for potential de-escalations.

The US officials will also likely start trade talks with the Swiss president.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney meets Trump for the first time since winning Canada’s elections. After trade talks, Trump says that the US gets along well with Canada and Mexico, “They just got to pay a little more money, you know?”

Meanwhile, the EU waits to present trade proposals to the US next week, armed with retaliatory tariffs on €100 billion of US goods if negotiations fall short of its expectations. China’s President Xi Jinping calls on the EU to “uphold multilateralism, defend fairness and justice, [and] oppose unilateral bullying,” bringing attention to the future of EU-China trade ties.

In the face of tariff uncertainty, India and the UK have signed a trade deal to boost their economic alliance. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer explains, “We are now in a new era for trade and the economy,” which requires stronger alliances and fewer trade barriers.

Similarly, Brazil is seeking closer ties with Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries like Singapore and Vietnam by promoting itself as a neutral economic partner in the face of US-China trade tensions.

Conversely, Indonesia offers trade concessions to the US by reducing laws for procuring goods with locally-produced content from 40% to 25%, ultimately meaning it can buy more US goods.

Tariffs also take a toll on toys as Mattel warns of higher prices – nearly 80% of all toys sold in America are made in China.

President Trump suggests that trade deals with some countries could be finalized as soon as this week. This could include countries with priority negotiations like India, Japan, and South Korea.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump orders a 100% tariff to be implemented on movies produced outside of America.

Beijing confirms it is considering talks with the US after receiving requests from senior US officials. However, it remains ready to protect itself and emphasizes that negotiations must be based on mutual respect, and America must remove existing tariffs, as coercive tactics will not be effective.

US de minimis exemptions for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong officially end, causing some retailers to stop selling in the US entirely. Companies like Adidas warn US customers of higher prices due to tariffs.

Shipments of eCommerce goods from China to the US have reportedly dropped by 65% since exporters started shifting towards other markets ahead of Trump’s tariffs and de minimis rule changes.

Affected businesses can offset tariff costs by increasing consumer prices, and Shein has done just that. The eCommerce giant’s prices for American consumers have increased by up to 377%.

The US has reportedly approached China for tariff talks, but none are known to have happened yet.

China has reportedly created a list of US goods exempt from the 125% tariffs, and had previously exempted goods like microchips and pharmaceuticals.

At a rally for 100 days in office, Trump shared that a trade deal with China may be within reach.

Trump vaguely warns pharmaceutical companies of an incoming tariff “wall,” suggesting impending import duties to boost domestic pharmaceutical production.

Scott Bessent believes “it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable.” He also mentions India as a key trading partner and says he “would guess that India would be one of the first trade deals we would sign.”

Trump signs an Executive Order to prevent the “stacking” or cumulation of multiple tariffs on individual auto-related imports, simplifying tariff applications and preventing unnecessarily high duties.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party has just won the recent election, shares his plan for Canada to diversify its economic partnerships to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs and reduce Canada’s reliance on the US.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson shares a bold video on X about the “global tariff storm” created by the US, emphasizing that “China won’t kneel down, because we know standing up for ourselves keeps the possibility of cooperation alive.”

Never Kneel Down! pic.twitter.com/z8FU3rMSBA

— CHINA MFA Spokesperson 中国外交部发言人 (@MFA_China) April 29, 2025

A leaked draft document for a “new strategic partnership” between the EU and UK declares a commitment to “free and open trade” in response to uncertain relations with America.

Likely worried about economic fallout, China is reportedly calling for companies to submit suggestions for US goods that should be exempt from the 125% tariffs.

Twelve Democratic US states are suing the Trump administration for “reckless” and “illegal” tariffs. 

The lawsuit states, “By claiming the authority to impose immense and ever-changing tariffs on whatever goods entering the United States he chooses, for whatever reason he finds convenient to declare an emergency, the president has upended the constitutional order and brought chaos to the American economy.”

A White House spokesperson reinforced that the Trump administration “remains committed to addressing this national emergency that’s decimating America’s industries and leaving our workers behind with every tool at our disposal, from tariffs to negotiations.”

US-China talks continue without the two seeing eye-to-eye. 

While the US reportedly wants to see China crack down on chemical manufacturers and sellers contributing to the US fentanyl crisis, Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu has stated, “If [the US] truly wants to address the fentanyl problem, it needs to revoke the unjustified tariffs, engage in equal consultation with China, and seek mutually beneficial cooperation.”

Bessent tells reporters that the US and China need to mutually de-escalate tariffs before they can begin rebalancing their trade relationship in a way that shifts China towards consumption and the US towards manufacturing.

Ahead of negotiations with the US, Vietnam’s trade ministry has reportedly issued a directive to prevent the transshipment of Chinese goods to the US. Stricter procedures are now required for goods to receive “Made in Vietnam” labels.

Scott Bessent, US Secretary of the Treasury, expects a de-escalation of US-China tensions as he believes the current situation is unsustainable. Trump states that tariffs on Chinese goods will “come down substantially” but warns that they “won’t be zero.”

Meanwhile, JD Vance calls for closer ties between the US and India, stating, “We want to work together more, and we want your nation to buy more of our military equipment.”

China’s Commerce Ministry has threatened to “take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” if countries strike deals with the US at China’s expense.

ASEAN countries are caught in the crossfire of two of their largest trading partners.

JD Vance says there’s a “good chance” of a UK-US trade deal thanks to this trade relationship being more reciprocal than that with the EU.

Meanwhile, South Korea strives to delay reciprocal tariffs as it negotiates with the US.

Trump clarifies no country is “off the hook” from tariffs and that electronics and semiconductors are being examined under Section 232 Investigations to be placed in a different “tariff bucket.” Pharmaceuticals are also under investigation. 

Howard Lutnick explains that “special focus-type tariffs” will be applied to these goods in the next two months.

China retaliates and suspends exports of vital goods like magnets and critical minerals, which will likely impact auto components, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor makers, and military contractors.

Trump temporarily suspends some tariffs on electronics like smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. China is exempt from 125% tariffs on electronics, but it still faces rates of 20%.

China raises tariffs on US goods to 125%, effective April 12. 

POLITICO reports that the finance ministry says, “Even if the US continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy,” continuing, “If the United States continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will ignore it.”

Meanwhile, Trump threatens Mexico on Truth Social with additional tariffs and sanctions if it fails to meet its obligations under a 1944 water treaty.

The White House clarifies that the 125% tariffs are in addition to the existing 20% tariffs on Chinese goods, meaning imports from China will face tariffs of 145%.

US country-specific reciprocal tariffs are paused for 90 days. 

China responds to 104% tariffs with 84% tariffs on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. Trump announces 125% retaliatory tariffs.

China emphasizes it will “fight to the end,” and its commerce ministry describes Trump’s latest threat as a mistake “exposing the American side’s blackmailing nature.”

Trump says he has no plan to pause his sweeping tariffs. He threatens China on Truth Social with an additional 50% tariff if it implements retaliatory tariffs, which would result in 104% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, von der Leyen expresses the EU’s willingness to implement “zero-for-zero” tariffs for certain goods and readiness to enforce countermeasures if necessary.

Europe is ready to negotiate with the US.

We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods.

Because we’re always ready for a good deal.

But we’re also prepared to respond with countermeasures.

And protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion. pic.twitter.com/hpZ77TXH4B

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) April 7, 2025

10% blanket tariffs take effect on most imports to the US.

China announces 34% tariffs on all US goods with no exemptions, effective April 10. It also places new export controls on seven rare elements needed for all kinds of tech goods and announces investigations into US medical imaging equipment.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun explains the reciprocal tariff on China “gravely violates WTO rules, and undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system. China firmly rejects this and will do what is necessary to defend our legitimate rights and interests.”

US tariffs on imported cars take effect.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney introduces 25% tariffs on American cars. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to increase domestic production of various goods while reducing dependence on the US for natural gas. 

​President Trump states he is open to negotiating and reducing tariffs if trading partners present “phenomenal” offers, emphasizing that companies could be exempt from tariffs if they manufacture within the US.

Trump invokes IEEPA national emergency powers to implement reciprocal tariffs on the world. 10% tariffs will be unleashed on most imports on April 5, while the countries with the largest trade deficits with the US will face individualized tariffs from April 9. 

Currently, the only tech exempt from tariffs is semiconductors.

With high tariff rates for South Asian countries, the future of many alternative manufacturing hubs to China is uncertain. The tariffs include 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, 36% for Thailand, 32% for Taiwan, and 26% for India.

Trump states, “[America’s] markets are gonna boom, the stock is gonna boom, the country is gonna boom.” Meanwhile, CNBC reports that stocks have already fallen for tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. 

Trump signs an Executive Order to end duty-free de minimis exemptions for China and Hong Kong, effective May 2.

Nintendo reportedly begins diversifying its supply chain to mitigate tariffs on Chinese imports to America, moving part of its production from China to Cambodia and Vietnam – a perfect example of preemptive risk mitigation through supply chain diversification.

Trump threatens secondary tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil if Russia does not accept a ceasefire deal with Ukraine. Key buyers of Russian oil include China and India.

America is reportedly suspending its contributions to the WTO in line with the Trump administration’s America First Trade Policy.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of the EU utilizing its Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to retaliate with tariffs or other trade restrictions is growing.

President Trump threatens the EU and Canada in a social media post in the middle of the night, discouraging them from closing ranks to retaliate against the US. 

Trump confirms 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, scheduled to be implemented on April 3. According to the New York Times, almost 50% of cars purchased in America are imported, mainly from Mexico, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Germany, and the UK.

European automakers reportedly lose $14 billion in value. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney believes “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba questions the decision, stating “[Japan] makes the largest amount of investment to the US, so we wonder if it makes sense for [Washington] to apply uniform tariffs to all countries.”

President Trump announces a 25% secondary tariff on all imports from any country that purchases oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2. This is likely to affect China, Spain, and India.  

The EU announces that its retaliatory tariffs will be delayed until mid-April .   

In response to the EU’s 50% tariff threat on American bourbon, Trump threatens a 200% tariff on European alcoholic products in a post on Truth Social.

Universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US take effect. 

Canada announces plans to retaliate from March 13 with 25% tariffs on $20.7 billion of US imports, which will expand to $155 million of goods if the US maintains its tariffs. This covers goods like orange juice and peanut butter, as well as steel and aluminum, tools, computers, sporting goods, and cast iron.

The European Union announces retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion of US goods scheduled for April 1. Once again, it plans to impose tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorbikes, Levi jeans, and Jack Daniels bourbon – among other consumer and tech goods.

Canada announces 25% tariffs on $30 million of US imports. This covers goods like orange juice, peanut butter, appliances, apparel, motorcycles, and paper products.

Ontario suspends electricity surcharge and Trump withdraws steel and aluminum threat.

China’s additional retaliatory tariffs on key American farm products take effect.

President Trump threatens to increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford responds with a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York.

Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs up to 250% tariffs on Canadian dairy and 50% for Canadian lumber.

Imports from Canada and Mexico that meet the rules of origin requirements under the USMCA are exempt from the March 4 tariffs until April 2. The tariff on non-USMCA potash lowers to 10%.   

US automakers receive a one-month exemption from new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.

China’s embassy posts on X “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” quoting a recent government statement.

If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end. https://t.co/crPhO02fFE

— Chinese Embassy in US (@ChineseEmbinUS) March 5, 2025

25% tariffs on most goods from Canada (10% on energy) and 25% on Mexican imports take effect. The US expands the number of American companies subject to export controls.   

Canada announces incoming retaliatory tariffs on over $100 billion of American goods over 21 days, and places an immediate 25% tariff on over $20 billion worth of US products. 

China announces additional retaliatory tariffs of 10% and 15% on various US food items, effective March 10. It also adds 10 US companies to its Unreliable Entities List, and imposes export controls on 15 US companies. 

Mexico threatens to impose unspecified tariffs on US goods if America doesn’t back down.

25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada come into effect, and tariffs on Chinese goods rise by an additional 10% – now sitting at 20% on all imports.  

President Trump posts on Truth Social that tariffs on imported agricultural products will commence on April 2, 2025.

Trump signs an Executive Order instructing the Commerce Department to consider tariffs on lumber and timber.

Trump announces that tariffs on goods from China will increase by 10% on March 4, 2025.   

Trump claims the EU was “formed to screw the United States,” and announces plans to implement 25% tariffs on unspecified EU imports.

The White House announces measures to address the threat to national security from copper imports with a Section 232 investigation. Tariffs on copper will likely impact semiconductor manufacturing in the US, as key components of GPUs often require copper.

Trump directs the USTR to initiate a Section 301 investigation into Digital Service Taxes (DSTs) levied by several countries.   

The administration announces that the tariff rates on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be around 25% but will “go substantially higher over a course of a year.”

The US threatens to impose tariffs on all auto imports beginning April 2, with a possible 25% rate.   

The White House unveils a “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” on Trade, stating the US will increase its tariffs to match the rates other countries charge on American imports. 

Recommendations are due by April 1, and implementation is possible from April 2.

Plans to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports on April 2 signal a potential disruption to the global automotive industry.   

President Trump announces plans to introduce universal tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12, which would eliminate exemptions from the 2018 tariffs and raise the tariff on aluminum to 25%. 

China’s 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas products and a 10% levy on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine cars imported from the US take effect. 

Reports indicate that the BIS and other agencies had implemented additional levels of review for license applications for tech goods under export controls, leading to delays in the licensing process.

10% tariffs are applied on all Chinese imports, largely affecting tech goods like cell phones, computers, and electric and industrial equipment.

China immediately retaliates with duties on American goods and initiates an anti-monopoly investigation into Google. It also introduces export controls on 25 rare earth minerals and metals, including those critical for producing some electronic goods, and adds 12 US companies to its Unreliable Entity List and 15 to its Control List.

China also announces incoming retaliatory 10% tariffs on American agricultural machinery, crude oil, and large-engine cars.

25% tariffs on US neighbors Canada and Mexico delayed for 30 days as they work to counteract illegal immigration and drug trafficking, giving businesses time to plan mitigation strategies.

Mr Trump indicates his plan to impose tariffs on the European Union “pretty soon.” 

President Trump invokes IEEPA national emergency powers related to undocumented immigration and drug trafficking to sign an Executive Order to impose the following tariffs on February 4:

• 25% on imports from Mexico 
• 25% on imports from Canada, with a 10% tariff on oil and gas, and 
• 10% on all imports from China.

Trump announces his intention for new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, significantly threatening critical components in the technology sector.   

President Trump threatens 25% tariffs on all Colombian imports if it refuses to accept flights carrying deported US immigrants. Brief retaliatory tariff threats transform into acceptance of the flights, and both sides abandon their threats.

Following his inauguration, President Trump announces his plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1. Specific plans for tariffs on Chinese imports are not immediately detailed. 

Trump issues a presidential memorandum outlining the “America First Trade Policy,” directing federal agencies to evaluate key aspects of US trade policy by April 30, 2025. The review aims to identify loopholes in tech export controls and provide recommendations to maintain America’s technological leadership, with a report due by April 1, 2025.